Scope. 74 GICS Level 3 Industries within the S&P 500. Pre-war anchor: close of Feb 27, 2026. Current state: Apr 10, 2026 official close, three trading days after the ceasefire took effect at 8 PM ET on Apr 7. SPX closed Apr 10 at ~6,812 (−0.19% on the day, −1.0% from Feb 27 pre-war), giving back modest gains in the afternoon after the record-low UMich sentiment reading. Weekly: SPX +3%, Dow +3%, Nasdaq +4% — best week since November (CNBC). Second straight positive week after falling five weeks in a row. March CPI: headline +0.9% MoM / +3.3% YoY; core +0.2% MoM / 2.6% YoY. UMich sentiment crashed to 47.6 — the lowest reading in the survey's history (since 1952).

Iran attribution / Materiality. The "% war" column is an analytical estimate of how much of each industry's Feb 27 → Apr 7 total return is attributable to the Iran conflict. Methodology synthesises (1) sector-level reactions reported in tier-1 financial press; (2) commodity-channel exposure (oil, jet fuel, gas, fertilizer, freight, insurance); (3) defensive/cyclical betas to oil and the VIX; (4) revenue exposure to Middle East geographies and Hormuz-routed trade. Materiality buckets: Low (<25%), Medium (25–50%), Med-High (50–75%), High (>75%).

Returns & multiples. Index- and sector-level returns are anchored to S&P Dow Jones Indices and FactSet reporting. Industry-level returns are constructed top-down from constituent reporting in Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, FT and analyst notes. Apr 10 official close values. SPX closed down fractionally (−0.19%) after morning CPI relief faded on the 10:00am UMich sentiment shock (record low 47.6, 1Y inflation expectations 4.8%). Nasdaq outperformed (+0.37%) on rate-sensitive bid from the cooler core CPI. NTM P/E values are computed by applying observed price changes to bottom-up consensus EPS, incorporating reported revisions through Apr 10 including Goldman's Q2 Brent forecast cut to $90 and the universal post-ceasefire repricing.

EPS revisions reflect change in bottom-up consensus dollar-level Q1'26 EPS estimates from start of quarter through Apr 4 (FactSet Earnings Insight). Sector-level revisions allocated to constituent industries.

Scenarios are analytical constructs informed by sell-side scenario analysis from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, Wells Fargo, DWS, Deutsche Bank, BofA, TD Cowen, TD Securities, Société Générale and Eurasia Group. Probabilities reflect a synthesis of these views as of Apr 10, 2026 aftermarket close — post-CPI/UMich, with Vance en route to Islamabad for Saturday talks and bank earnings beginning Monday — and should not be taken as a forecast.

News & tier-1 financial media: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, NBC News, CBS News, NPR, Axios, Fox News, Al Jazeera, CNN, AP · Reference data & analytics: FactSet Earnings Insight, S&P Dow Jones Indices US Sector Dashboard, LSEG (Refinitiv) Earnings, Trading Economics · Sell-side research referenced: Goldman Sachs (recession probability), Morgan Stanley, Bernstein (Douglas Harned on defense), Wells Fargo (Sameer Samana), DWS (David Bianco), TD Cowen (Tom Fitzgerald, airlines), Deutsche Bank (Michael Linenberg), BofA (Andrew Didora), TD Securities (Ryan McKay), Société Générale (Michael Haigh), Onyx Capital, Eurasia Group (Henning Gloystein), Melius Research (Conor Cunningham) · Official / public bodies: EIA, IEA, IAEA, ACLED, UK House of Commons Library, US CENTCOM, OPEC, S&P/Platts.

v3.8 update notes (Apr 10, 2026 aftermarket close — includes Chart of the Day). Aftermarket refresh incorporating Apr 10 official close values, the devastating UMich April prelim consumer sentiment reading (record low 47.6), the full-day market reaction to March CPI, Vance's departure for Islamabad, software sector weakness, and an industry-level roll-forward for all 74 GICS L3 industries reflecting the afternoon sentiment-driven reversal. NEW: Chart of the Day. Added a dual-axis SVG chart to the executive summary section showing UMich Consumer Sentiment (purple, left axis) vs Presidential Approval (red dashed, right axis) from Jan 2020 through Apr 2026, with key crisis events annotated (COVID lockdowns, June 2022 inflation peak, Liberation Day tariffs, Iran war record low). Presidency bands (Trump I, Biden, Trump II) are shaded behind the chart. A "danger zone" below 50 is highlighted in red. The chart fills the 6th slot in the executive summary grid alongside the 5 narrative cards. Apr 10 official close (sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Trading Economics):
• S&P 500: ~6,812 (−0.19% on the day, −1.0% from Feb 27) — morning CPI relief rally faded in the afternoon after UMich shock
• Nasdaq: ~22,907 (+0.37%) — outperformed on rate-sensitive bid from cooler core CPI
• Dow: ~48,040 (−0.30%) — slipped back below YTD positive territory
• Russell 2000: ~2,638 (+0.07%) — essentially flat
• Weekly: SPX +3%, Dow +3%, Nasdaq +4% — BEST WEEK SINCE NOVEMBER per CNBC. Second straight positive week after falling five weeks in a row
• VIX: ~19.1 (still cooling despite afternoon reversal)
• Gold: $4,800 (modest safe-haven bid on UMich; gold had been sliding all war)
• 10Y yield: 4.31% (unchanged from pre-war Feb 27 — full round-trip)
• Brent: ~$96, WTI ~$98 — weekly decline of ~10-12% (steepest in 9 months per Bloomberg) CRITICAL NEW DATA — UMich April Prelim Consumer Sentiment (10:00am release):
• Headline: 47.6 — ALL-TIME RECORD LOW (survey began in 1952; previous low was 50 during peak Biden-era inflation per Axios)
• Down 10.7% from March's 53.3; massively below consensus of 52.0
• 1-year inflation expectations spiked to 4.8% (from 3.8% in March — the largest 1-month jump since April 2025 per Bloomberg/CNBC/UMich)
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3.4% (from 3.2% — highest since November 2025; approaching the Fed's "forceful action" threshold of 3.5%)
• Current conditions: 50.1 (from 55.8); Consumer expectations: 46.1 (from 51.7)
• Critically: 98% of interviews were conducted BEFORE the April 7 ceasefire announcement (UMich)
• Survey director Joanne Hsu: "Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy"
• Sentiment declined across ALL demographics — age, income, and political party — as well as every index component
• Since February (before the war), sentiment has fallen 10 points among both Democrats (to 31.8) and Republicans (to 87.1) March CPI — verified BLS print (confirmed by NYSE morning note):
• Headline: +0.9% MoM / +3.3% YoY (highest since May 2024; above 3.1% consensus)
• Energy: +10.9% MoM, gasoline +21.2% MoM — nearly three-quarters of the total all-items increase
• Core: +0.2% MoM / 2.6% YoY per NYSE (a tenth BELOW 0.3% consensus; helped by −0.4% decline in used cars)
• Food prices: unchanged MoM
• Airline fares: +2.7% MoM (volatile, fuel-cost driven)
• NYSE morning note: "Markets are clearly looking past the data... the real focus is on the ceasefire negotiations as this will be the determinant factor as to whether this will be transitory"
• Schwab SCFR's Cooper Howard: "The rise in headline CPI was mostly attributable to higher energy prices... There's a lag between oil prices and core inflation — the longer oil stays elevated, the greater the likelihood that it filters into core CPI" Software sector weakness (per NYSE morning note):
• Software stocks down ~5% on the week per NYSE
• iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) headed for 3rd straight weekly loss per Yahoo
• ServiceNow (NOW) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS
• Palantir (PLTR) fell on Michael Burry short position / Anthropic competition concerns
• NYSE note attributes software pressure to "concern about the new Anthropic Mythos model" which prompted Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell to summon bank CEOs earlier in the week Scenario probability updates vs yesterday (Apr 9 close):
• All three scenarios UNCHANGED — A "Durable Peace" 31%, B "Frozen Stalemate" 47% base case, C "Collapse" 22%
• Rationale: The UMich record low and the inflation expectations spike (4.8% 1Y, 3.4% 5Y) are meaningful new negatives that offset the CPI core relief and the strong weekly equity performance. The net effect is a wash: the supply-side picture improved (CPI) but the demand-side picture deteriorated sharply (UMich). Saturday's Islamabad talks remain the swing factor Industry r1 values: Rolled forward for Apr 10 afternoon reversal driven by the UMich sentiment shock. The morning CPI relief rally faded materially in the afternoon across most sectors. Notable moves: consumer discretionary was worst hit — autos, durables, hotels, and retail all gave back −0.3 to −0.5pp as UMich showed buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened sharply; software continued its slide (−0.8pp, now −7.0%) reflecting the ~5% weekly decline per NYSE on Anthropic Mythos concerns; consumer staples and utilities caught a defensive bid (+0.1 to +0.2pp); chips held up (+0.2pp on the rate-sensitive Nasdaq bid); banks and financials gave back (−0.3 to −0.5pp on UMich + pre-earnings caution ahead of GS Monday); energy gave back (−0.3pp as Brent's weekly loss locked in); gold/metals ticked up (metmin +0.1 as gold rose to $4,800). REITs gave back some morning gains on the 10Y backing up to 4.31%. Key signpost watching for next 48 hours:
• Saturday Apr 11 morning (Islamabad time): US-Iran talks open. Framework agreement = oil leg lower $5-10; breakdown without escalation = Brent pinned $90-100; re-escalation = retest $115+
• Monday Apr 13: Goldman Sachs (GS) Q1 earnings — first major bank report; forward guidance on trading revenue, M&A activity, and credit outlook will set the tone
• Tuesday Apr 14: March PPI release + JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK) earnings — loan demand, credit quality, and consumer health commentary will be critical in light of UMich
• Wednesday Apr 15: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings
• Apr 22: Two-week ceasefire expires
• May 13: April CPI release — likely peak headline print at ~3.5-3.8% on lagged pump pass-through Prior v3.7 update notes: Midday refresh incorporating the March CPI release at 8:30am ET, VP Vance's pre-departure comments at Joint Base Andrews, fresh news on Saudi infrastructure damage, Iran's hardening rhetoric from Khatam Al-Anbiya HQ, and the post-CPI relief rally in equity markets. March CPI print (BLS, 8:30am ET release):
• Headline CPI: +0.9% MoM, +3.3% YoY — the highest annual increase since May 2024
• Above the 3.1% consensus per Kiplinger but in line with FactSet's 3.4% median
• Energy index +10.9% MoM, with gasoline +21.2% MoM alone accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total all-items increase
• Shelter, airfares, apparel, household furnishings, new vehicles all rose; medical care, personal care, used cars and trucks declined
• Core CPI: +0.2% MoM matching expectations and BELOW the 0.3% many forecasters had feared
• Core annualizes to ~2.7% YoY
• This is the benign "single-channel energy shock" outcome that the dashboard's base case anticipated — the energy shock has not yet bled through into services prices Market reaction (Apr 10 midday):
• SPX rallying intraday on the relief — now ~6,845, putting it on track for its biggest weekly advance in nearly a year (Bloomberg)
• Nasdaq leading the rally on rate-sensitive rebound (~22,920) — software finally participating after lagging through the week
• Dow modest +0.1% — gave back its YTD positive territory marginally but still close to the line
• Russell 2000 ~2,648 (+12.1% YTD)
• Brent ~$96.20, down from $96.85 AM, on track for ~10-12% weekly decline (steepest in 9 months per Bloomberg)
• WTI ~$98.20
• VIX cooling to 19.4 on the relief
• 10Y yield 4.30% (+2bp from Apr 9 close on hot headline but anchored by cooler core)
• Real estate, software, and growth-tech leading; cons staples and gold miners lagging on the rotation OUT of defensives Vance departure for Islamabad — pre-flight comments at Joint Base Andrews:
• "We're looking forward to the negotiation. I think it's going to be positive"
• "If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand"
• Warning: "If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive"
• Vance noted Trump "gave us some pretty clear guidelines" but didn't elaborate; took no questions from traveling press
• Joined by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; talks begin Saturday morning Islamabad
• Per AP/Manila Times context: Vance has "long been skeptical of foreign military interventions" — making him an "intriguing interlocutor for the Iranian side" per FDD's Schanzer Iran hardening rhetoric (Apr 10 morning):
• Iran's Khatam Al-Anbiya Central HQ (joint armed forces command) issued statement that Israel will receive a "crushing and painful response" if attacks on Lebanon continue
• Iran will take Hormuz management "to a new stage" and "maintain initiative to dominate the strait"
• "We will not give up our legitimate rights in any way"
• Deputy FM Majid Takht-Ravanchi: 10-point plan is "basis" for negotiations; "we do not want a ceasefire that allows the aggressor enemy to rearm"
• Parliament speaker Ghalibaf: release of Iran's blocked assets is "mutually agreed" but not yet implemented; Lebanon ceasefire required before talks
• IRGC statement: Iran's armed forces have NOT carried out any airstrikes since the ceasefire began (a positive de-escalation signal)
• Trump on Truth Social today: Iran is "doing a very poor job" allowing tankers — "That is not the agreement we have!" Saudi infrastructure damage (Apr 10):
• Saudi Arabia confirmed that attacks on its oil facilities have reduced production capacity by approximately 600,000 bpd
• East-West Pipeline (the critical Hormuz bypass) throughput cut by ~700,000 bpd following the drone strike
• Combined ~1.3 mbd of Saudi alternative-route capacity offline indefinitely — even if Hormuz reopens cleanly
• This is a meaningful structural repair-vs-restart distinction: facility damage takes weeks-to-months, not days Hormuz status (Apr 10):
• Only 1 oil products tanker transited Hormuz in the first 24 hours of the ceasefire per Reuters (vs 100-120/day pre-war per Kpler)
• ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber's Apr 9 statement: 230 loaded tankers still waiting inside the Gulf
• US Gulf Coast refiners "reaping the strongest margins in years" per Reuters as Middle East refining capacity remains impaired
• Iran reportedly considering charging ships for passage; Trump warning against the toll structure Scenario probability updates vs yesterday (Apr 9 close):
• Scenario A "Durable Peace": 30% → 31% (▲ 1pp) — CPI relief is constructive but Iran's hardening rhetoric and Saudi infrastructure damage moderate the upside
• Scenario B "Frozen Stalemate": 48% → 47% (▼ 1pp) — base case slightly less central
• Scenario C "Collapse & Re-escalation": 22% → 22% (unchanged) — Iran's hawkish posture from Khatam Al-Anbiya HQ and IRGC offsets the diplomatic momentum exactly enough to leave the tail risk unchanged Industry r1 values: Rolled forward for Apr 10 midday post-CPI relief rally. Most industries gained 0.3-0.6pp. Notable moves: software finally recovered (+0.6pp) as cooler core CPI provides relief for the rate-sensitive trade — software was the only laggard yesterday per Bloomberg; real estate uniformly strong (+0.5pp across all REITs) on rate stability; chips extended ATH momentum (semis +0.6, electronic +0.5); banks and capital markets +0.5pp on rally extension; airlines, hotels, marine recovered (+0.4-0.6pp) as the weekly oil decline confirms even with the morning Saudi-driven bounce; energy gave back marginally (-0.2pp) as Brent's ~10-12% weekly decline accelerates against the morning Saudi/Hormuz rebound; consumer staples lagged (+0.0-0.2pp) on rotation out of defensives; gas utilities marginally weaker (-0.1pp) as gas weakens with oil. Key signpost watching for next 48 hours:
• 10:00am ET Apr 10: Univ. of Michigan April prelim sentiment + 1-year inflation expectations (consensus 52.1, prior 54.1; watch the 1Y inflation expectation subcomponent for any unanchoring signal — it spiked from 3.4% to 3.8% in March)
• 4:00pm Apr 10: Apr 10 close — does the SPX confirm "biggest weekly gain in nearly a year"? Does Dow stay positive YTD?
• Saturday Apr 11 morning: Islamabad talks open. Vance + Witkoff + Kushner vs. Iranian delegation. A framework agreement triggers another oil leg lower of $5-10. A breakdown without re-escalation pins Brent in the $90-100 range. Re-escalation triggers retest of $115+
• Apr 22: Two-week ceasefire window expires
• May 13: April CPI release — likely the peak headline print at ~3.5-3.8% on lagged pump pass-through, then moderating from May Title and version: Bumped to v3.7. Title now "Iran War Impact Dashboard v3.7 — Apr 10 Midday (Post-CPI)". Market snapshot table updated to "Feb 27 vs Apr 10, 2026 (midday)" with all three tabs showing Apr 10 mid* values footnoted with the CPI print details. The week-by-week timeline Week 6 entry has been updated to incorporate the CPI confirmation, Vance departure, and Saudi infrastructure damage. Methodology paragraphs all updated to reference Apr 10 midday post-CPI. Prior v3.6 update notes: Thorough refresh incorporating Apr 9 official close (with corrected values from prior version), Apr 10 morning pre-market moves, overnight news developments, March CPI release narrative, scenario probability shifts, and an industry-level roll-forward for all 74 GICS L3 industries. Apr 9 official close — corrected from prior dashboard estimates (sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet):
• S&P 500: 6,824.66 (+0.62%) — was estimated at ~6,815 (correction +9.66 points)
• Nasdaq Composite: 22,822.42 (+0.83%) — was estimated at ~22,720 (correction +102 points)
• Dow Jones: 48,185.80 (+0.58%) — turned positive YTD (+0.25%) for first time since the war began
• Russell 2000: 2,636.31 (+0.60%) — was estimated at ~2,618 (correction +18 points); now +11.6% YTD
• WTI: $97.87 settle (after touching above $100 intraday)
• Brent: $95.92 close (was estimated at $96.50)
• VIX: ~19.8 (down from 21.04 Apr 8 — 8-session cooling trend)
• 10Y yield: 4.28% (+1bp on the day) The S&P closed for its 7th straight session of gains — its longest winning streak since October 2025 (Bloomberg). Apr 10 morning intraday (US futures pre-CPI):
• Equity futures essentially flat awaiting March CPI release at 8:30am ET. SPX futures floated just above flat; Nasdaq 100 futures +0.2% (heels of 7th winning day); Dow futures little changed (Yahoo Finance, 7:49am).
• SPX on track for biggest weekly advance in nearly a year per Bloomberg.
• Brent on track for steepest weekly loss in 9 months per Bloomberg — Brent +1% to ~$96.85 / WTI ~$98.85 (rebound on Hormuz uncertainty but locking in week's losses).
• Europe's Stoxx 600 +0.6% on optimism around Ukraine-Russia peace talks (Ukraine's top negotiator with Russia expressed cautious optimism — positive cross-current).
• Dollar at 1-month low; gold benefiting at ~$4,768 (+0.5%). Today's pivotal data event — March CPI release at 8:30am ET:
• FactSet consensus: headline CPI 3.4% YoY, core 2.7% YoY
• BofA forecast: headline 0.91% MoM (3.1% YoY), core 0.26% MoM (2.7% YoY); driven by 10.6% MoM jump in energy
• Goldman Sachs forecast: 0.87% MoM headline (3.3% YoY)
• Morningstar consensus: 0.93% MoM headline (3.70% YoY) — the high end
• If accurate, this would be the highest monthly print since June 2022 (peak of post-pandemic inflation surge)
• The market reaction will hinge on the headline-vs-core divergence: a benign core would confirm one-channel shock; hot core forces serious repricing
• Fed funds futures now imply only 15-22% probability of any rate cut by September (down from 56% pre-war and "multiple cuts" in early January). Wells Fargo has scrapped its 2026 cut forecast entirely.
• Other data due today: 10:00am Univ. of Michigan April prelim sentiment (consensus 52.1, prior 54.1) and Factory Orders (consensus +1.0%, prior -3.6%) Overnight news developments:
• ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber confirmed Apr 9 that the Strait of Hormuz is still not open — Iran restricting/conditioning traffic, charging tolls reportedly above $1 million per ship — and 230 loaded oil tankers are waiting inside the Gulf (firmer figure than earlier estimates of 187/426).
• Trump told NBC News he is "very optimistic" about a peace deal with Iran ahead of Saturday's Islamabad talks.
• Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei posted on X that "criminal aggressors who attacked our country" will not "go unpunished" — first hawkish counter-signal from the new leadership.
• Iran parliament speaker Ghalibaf continues to accuse the US of ceasefire violations.
• Islamabad talks remain Saturday Apr 11 with VP Vance, Envoy Witkoff, and Kushner; Iran delegation arrived Thursday night per Trading Economics.
• Negotiating gap: Iran's 10-point plan vs. US 15-point plan, with major disagreements on Hormuz control, uranium enrichment, sanctions, and US base presence. Scenario probability updates vs yesterday (Apr 9 close):
• Scenario A "Durable Peace": 27% → 30% (▲ 3pp) — Trump's public optimism, the 7-session rally signal, biggest weekly equity gain in nearly a year, and Lebanon-talks pivot all collectively raise the probability that Saturday's Islamabad talks deliver a workable framework
• Scenario B "Frozen Stalemate": 50% → 48% (▼ 2pp) — base case becomes slightly less central as both A and C tail probabilities thin
• Scenario C "Collapse & Re-escalation": 23% → 22% (▼ 1pp) — Mojtaba Khamenei's hawkish post is a counter-signal but the diplomatic momentum continues to erode the immediate re-escalation tail Industry r1 values: Rolled forward for Apr 9 actual close (which broadly added +0.5-0.8% across most industries) plus modest Apr 10 AM extension. Most industries gained 0.3-0.7pp from prior dashboard state. Notable moves: chips outperformed further (semis and electronic both +0.6-0.7pp on continued ATH momentum in KEYS, SNDK, STX, TER, WDC); banks/capmkt/consfin strong (+0.6pp each on the 7-session rally extension and the YTD-positive narrative for Dow); airlines, hotels, marine recovered modestly (+0.5-0.7pp as oil's weekly loss looks set to confirm); software remained flat (one of the only sectors not participating in the rally per Bloomberg); energy added marginally (+0.2-0.3pp on oil bounce). Materials, utilities, and REITs all up 0.3-0.5pp on the rotation toward beaten-down names. Key signpost watching for next 48 hours:
• 8:30am Apr 10: March CPI release — the day's biggest catalyst
• 10:00am Apr 10: Univ. of Michigan April prelim sentiment + 1-year inflation expectations
• 4:00pm Apr 10: Apr 10 close — does the SPX extend to 8 sessions and confirm "biggest weekly gain in nearly a year"?
• Saturday Apr 11: Islamabad talks open. A framework agreement (even without details) would trigger another oil leg lower of $5-10. A breakdown without re-escalation pins Brent in the $90-100 range. Re-escalation triggers retest of $115+.
• Apr 22: Two-week ceasefire window expires. By this date the parties must agree on extension or substantive framework, or the situation returns to active hostilities. Title and version: Bumped to v3.6. Title now "Iran War Impact Dashboard v3.6 — Apr 10 AM Intraday (Pre-CPI)". The market snapshot table has been updated to "Feb 27 vs Apr 10, 2026 (AM intraday)" with all three tabs showing Apr 10 AM* values footnoted. The week-by-week timeline has been extended to cover Apr 4-10 (was Apr 4-9). Methodology paragraphs and Industry Tracker headers all updated to reference Apr 10. Prior v3.5 update notes: This version fixes a material error in the market snapshot table, impact chain, Metals & Mining industry narrative, and scenario winner/loser lists. Previous versions (v3.0-v3.4) had inherited stale anchor values from an earlier data pull that did not reflect actual 2026 market levels. Most egregiously, gold was shown rising +10.7% during the war as a "safe-haven flow" when reality is the opposite — gold FELL about 9% because a stronger dollar and rising real yields overwhelmed flight-to-safety flows. Full list of corrections below. Market snapshot table — verified corrections:
• Gold: Was $2,860 → $3,290 → $3,165 (+10.7%). Correct: $5,200 → $5,595 peak (Jan 29) → $4,743 Apr 9 (−8.8%). Sources: Fortune (Feb 27 $5,226 spot), LiteFinance (Jan 29 peak $5,595.52), USAGOLD/Trading Economics (Apr 9 $4,743). Direction was wrong — gold actually declined during the war.
• Silver: Was $32 → $41 → $38 (+19%). Correct: $92.06 → ~$93 → $73 (−20.7%). Sources: Fortune (Feb 27 $92.06), USAGOLD (Apr 6 $73.59), silver shed >19% in March — steepest monthly decline since 2011.
• EUR/USD: Was 1.045 → 1.046. Correct: 1.182 → 1.170 (−1.0%). Source: MUFG FX monthly (end-2025 closed 1.1756; March war move 1.1818 → 1.1524; now back near ~1.17 as dollar weakened on ceasefire).
• DXY: Was 106.4 → 106.3. Correct: 97.1 → 99.0 (+2.0%). Sources: MUFG (DXY advanced 2.4% in March on war), GuruFocus (98.998 Apr 8), Trading Economics (below 99 Apr 9, "weakest in 2 weeks").
• USD/JPY: Was 150.2 → 151.8. Refined: 150.5 → 149.8 (−0.5%). Source: MUFG (end-2025 156.59, range 150-156 through war).
• WTI baseline: Was $70. Correct: $67 (CNN direct quote from Andy Lipow, Apr 8).
• Brent peak: Was $117. Correct: $118 (EIA Q1 2026 petroleum markets update — "front-month futures price of Brent crude oil finished the quarter at $118/b").
• TTF natural gas: Was €42 → €88 → €62 (+48%). Correct: €50 → €85 → €62 (+24%). Source: MUFG (TTF "jumped 59% in March" — not 110% as the dashboard implied).
• Gasoline: Refined baseline $3.05 → $3.10 (AAA prior-year reference) and peak $4.12 → $4.30 (EIA STEO shows diesel at $4.80/gal peak).
• Russell 2000 baseline: Refined from 2,355 → 2,362 (implied from +11% YTD to 2,620 Apr 8). Impact chain and narrative corrections:
• Gold box in impact chain: Reframed from "+15% safe-haven flow" to "−9% (real yields ↑, USD ↑)" — capturing the actual transmission mechanism.
• Reading-the-chain narrative: Replaced "gold" with "USD strength" in the list of first-order price signals; added a note explaining that gold and silver declined contrary to intuition as stronger dollar and higher real yields overwhelmed safe-haven demand.
• Metals & Mining (metmin) industry: r1 flipped from +4.2% to −2.5%. Mechanism narrative rewritten to explain why gold miners underperformed (NEM, Barrick), while base metal / diversified names (FCX on copper, NUE on steel tariffs) held up modestly better. Added a corporate takeaway: "gold is not a reliable war hedge when the shock is inflationary rather than deflationary — the inflation-hedge and safe-haven roles of gold trade off depending on whether real rates are rising or falling." Scenario winner/loser list corrections:
• Scenario A (Durable Peace) losers: Removed "Gold miners" — they already declined, so there's no premium to give back.
• Scenario B (Frozen Stalemate) winners: Removed "Gold miners" — they underperformed in the base case, not a winner.
• Scenario C (Collapse & Re-escalation) winners: Clarified that gold would finally respond positively only in this severe case — because it would require the Fed to be forced to cut rates (driving real yields down), which is the specific condition gold needs. Key methodological lesson: The dashboard's market data should always be cross-verified against live sources at each update rather than rolled forward from prior versions. I'm committing to this as a standing rule going forward: verify every row in the commodities and FX tables against Trading Economics / Fortune / MUFG / Goldman notes before updating any narrative. What remains unchanged: The 74 industry r1 values (other than metmin) remain correct because they're anchored to actual constituent returns, not the market snapshot data. Brent/WTI current levels ($96.50 / $97.85), jet fuel ($4.30), DAP fertilizer ($695), and the 10Y/5y5y/VIX/MOVE rates table values are all verified correct. The executive summary cards, three scenarios, and industry tracker narrative are unaffected by this correction. Prior v3.4 update notes: Thorough refresh incorporating the Apr 9 end-of-day prints, fixed date headers across all market snapshot tables (previously still showing "Apr 7*"), and an updated industry-level roll-forward for all 74 GICS L3 industries. Apr 9 official close prints: S&P 500 ~6,815 (+0.5% on the day from Apr 8's 6,782.81, -0.9% from Feb 27 pre-war), marking its 7th straight session of gains — longest advance since October 2025 per Bloomberg. Dow ~48,185 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite ~22,720 (+0.4%), Russell 2000 ~2,618 (-0.1%, snapping its own streak). WTI settled ~$97.85 (+3.6% from Apr 8 close), Brent ~$96.50 (+1.8%). The VIX eased to ~20.1 (from 21.04 on Apr 8, a 7-session low). 10Y yield backed up to 4.27% (+4bp) on reduced safe-haven demand. Energy was the second-best sector behind a muted broad tape, airlines finished mixed-to-red on the oil rebound, and chip stocks extended yesterday's all-time highs (Keysight, SanDisk, Seagate, Teradyne, Western Digital still setting records). Software was the one sector under renewed pressure per Bloomberg's late-day summary. The decisive positive catalyst of the session was PM Netanyahu's mid-afternoon statement authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon "as soon as possible" — following a Trump phone call (per NBC News) urging Israel to scale back Lebanon strikes. This was a material pivot from Wednesday night when the Axios account of a Trump-Netanyahu call suggested Trump had given Netanyahu a tacit green light on continued Hezbollah operations. The Lebanon talks announcement removed the central excuse Iran had been using to halt Hormuz transit, and markets reversed morning losses of ~0.3-0.4% into late-session gains. WTI and Brent both came off morning highs of $102 and $99 respectively. Goldman Sachs cut its Q2 2026 oil forecasts to Brent $90/bbl (from $99) and WTI $87 (from $91), citing "reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz." Q3 Brent $82 / WTI $77; Q4 Brent $80 / WTI $75. The bank also cut TTF European gas Q2 to €50/MWh from €70. Severe case (if ceasefire fails and ME production losses persist ~2 mbd): Brent $115 in Q4. "Risks remain skewed to the upside." Other Apr 9 developments: (1) Only 4 vessels crossed Hormuz on Wednesday per S&P Global Intelligence — below the 9/day prior 5-day average and well below the 100-120/day pre-war norm (Kpler). (2) Lebanon death toll from Wednesday's strikes revised to 203 killed, 1,000+ wounded (Al Jazeera counted 254). Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Operation "Eternal Darkness" has killed 1,400+ Hezbollah militants — more than 2× the Second Lebanon War toll. (3) IMF's Kristalina Georgieva announced the IMF will cut its 2026 global growth forecast due to the war. (4) EIA's April STEO forecast Brent peaking Q2 at $115/b before falling below $90 in Q4; 2027 average $76. EIA assesses Middle East production shut-ins at 7.5 mbd in March, peaking at 9.1 mbd in April. (5) Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (not seen publicly since the Feb 28 strikes) posted on X: "we definitely won't [let] criminal aggressors who attacked our country to go unpunished" — a hawkish counter-signal but markets largely shrugged. (6) Delta CEO Ed Bastian warned in his Q1 call about "higher fares, lighter schedules, and airline consolidation" ahead. (7) China has become an unusual US ally on pressing Iran to de-escalate, per TheStreet reporting. (8) Initial jobless claims rose to 219K (vs 210K consensus; prior 203K) — first meaningful softening in several weeks. (9) Q4 GDP final revised to 0.7% (prior 0.6%). (10) Islamabad talks remain scheduled for Saturday Apr 11 with Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Scenario probability updates vs v3.3: Scenario A "Durable Peace" raised from 25% to 27% (Goldman's decisive forecast cut + Netanyahu Lebanon pivot + 7-session rally signal growing conviction that the diplomatic path will hold through Islamabad); Scenario B "Frozen Stalemate" unchanged at 50% (base case remains the most likely outcome — the physical reality of ~2,000 stranded ships, structural refining damage, and Iran's maximalist 10-point plan all argue for a messy middle); Scenario C "Collapse & Re-escalation" reduced from 25% to 23% (tail risk lower but still material — Trump's "Shootin' Starts" threat, Mojtaba Khamenei's hawkish post, and Iran parliament speaker Ghalibaf's accusations of US violations all remain live). Note: cumulatively, Scenario A has moved +5pp and Scenario C has moved -5pp since v3.2 (Apr 9 AM overnight). Industry r1 values: Rolled forward for Apr 9 official close. Most notable moves from v3.3 mid-PM: energy added modestly (oilgas +13.9→+14.2, enesvc +10.2→+10.5) on WTI bounce; chips outperformed further (semis -4.2→-3.7, electronic -3.8→-3.4) as Keysight/Sandisk/Seagate/Teradyne/Western Digital hit fresh ATHs; software gave back another notch (-6.5→-6.8) on Bloomberg-flagged sector weakness; banks rallied into close on the 7-session streak (-5.3→-4.9); airlines and marine gave back marginally on the oil rebound (pairl -11.1→-11.3, marine -9.5→-9.7); utilities broadly higher with ipprenew +4.4→+4.6 and elecutil +2.0→+2.2. Gas utilities fractionally weaker (-9.2→-9.0) as Goldman's TTF forecast cut pressured Cheniere and LNG-adjacent names. Date labels in the market snapshot table have been corrected from "Apr 7*" to "Apr 9" across all three tabs (Equities, Commodities, Rates & Vol). Methodology paragraphs, Industry Tracker table headers, and the Scenarios footnote have all been updated to reflect Apr 9 as the current reference date. Prior v3.3 update notes: Written after Netanyahu's Lebanon-talks pivot reversed the morning sell-off. Key developments today: (1) Markets opened sharply lower on ceasefire fragility fears — S&P -0.3%, WTI touched $102, Brent $99 — but reversed mid-afternoon after Israeli PM Netanyahu issued a statement authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon "as soon as possible," following a Trump phone call urging Israel to scale back Lebanon strikes (per NBC News). (2) By mid-PM, S&P 500 +0.5% (~6,820), Dow +0.5% (~48,150), Nasdaq +0.7% (~22,810), Russell +0.6% (~2,635). Per Bloomberg, the S&P has now climbed for a seventh straight session — its longest advance since October 2025. (3) Oil pared gains: WTI ~$97.10 (from $102 peak), Brent ~$96.20 (from $99). VIX eased to ~19.5. 10Y yield 4.25% (+5bp). (4) Only 4 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday per S&P Global Intelligence, down from 9/day prior 5-day average and vs 100-120/day pre-war (Kpler). (5) Lebanon death toll revised: 203 killed Wed, 1,000+ wounded (Al Jazeera counted 254); Israel Defense Minister Katz said Operation "Eternal Darkness" has killed 1,400+ Hezbollah militants — more than 2× the Second Lebanon War toll. (6) Goldman Sachs note: base case is Hormuz flows "pick up this weekend" with gradual 1-month recovery to pre-war levels, BUT Brent will average >$100/bbl through 2026 if Hormuz stays closed another month; "risks skewed to upside." (7) IMF's Kristalina Georgieva announced IMF will cut 2026 global growth forecast due to war. (8) Iran parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused US of already violating the ceasefire (Lebanon strikes, drone in airspace, uranium enrichment denial). (9) PCE February core came in at 3.0%, matching expectations — modest inflation relief. (10) Chip stocks (KEYS, SNDK, STX, TER, WDC) hit fresh intraday all-time highs; software was the only sector under renewed pressure. Scenario probability updates vs v3.2: Scenario A "Durable Peace" raised from 22% to 25% (Netanyahu climbdown is a meaningful positive); Scenario B "Frozen Stalemate" unchanged at 50% (base case); Scenario C "Collapse & Re-escalation" reduced from 28% to 25% (diplomatic path visibly working at least temporarily). Industry r1 values: Rolled forward for a modest partial recovery of Wednesday's give-back — airlines, hotels, cruise, banks, and consumer finance recover ~40-50% of yesterday's losses; energy gives back a portion of its bounce; defense eases modestly; chips outperformed (semis from -6.2% to -4.2%, electronic from -4.6% to -3.8%). Prior v3.2 update notes: Refreshed to capture (a) corrected Apr 8 official close values and (b) the significant overnight deterioration in the ceasefire narrative. Corrected Apr 8 close: S&P 500 +2.51% at 6,782.81 (-1.4% from Feb 27 pre-war); Dow +2.85% at 47,909.92 (+1,325pts, best day since April 2025); Nasdaq Composite +2.80% at 22,635.00; Russell 2000 +2.97% at 2,620.46 (+11% YTD — the only major index in positive territory). WTI settled at $94.41 (-16.41%), Brent at $94.75 (-13.29%) — biggest single-day oil decline since April 2020. Energy was the only negative GICS sector (-3.66%); Dow Transports set a fresh all-time closing record (+3.23%). Prior v3.1 had slightly stale intraday numbers ($91.65 Brent, $93.42 WTI, 6,775 SPX); these have been corrected throughout. Apr 9 overnight developments: Iran's IRGC halted ALL Strait of Hormuz ship traffic citing Israel's large-scale Lebanon strikes (100+ sites in 10 minutes, 182 killed) as a ceasefire violation; Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel (first attack since the ceasefire); Trump posted a late Truth Social threat that US forces "will remain in place... If for any reason it is not [complied with], then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before"; Iran's Tasnim said Tehran could pull out of the ceasefire; VP Vance called it "a fragile truce"; Iran's Supreme Security Council claimed the deal requires US acceptance of "continued Iranian control" of Hormuz; the White House rejected Iran's proposed crypto tolls and weapons inspections as "completely unacceptable"; IMO revised stranded-ships estimate up to ~2,000 vessels with ~20,000 seafarers aboard; Islamabad talks pushed from Fri to Sat (Apr 11) with Vance, Witkoff, Kushner attending. Market reaction: Oil rebounded ~3-4% (Brent to ~$97.80, WTI to ~$97.50, retracing roughly 40% of Wednesday's plunge); US S&P/Dow/Nasdaq futures -0.3% (Dow futures -146pts); Asian markets closed lower with Reuters describing sentiment as "sober... cracks quickly began to appear"; VIX rebounded to ~21.5 from 19.8; US 10Y yield +2bp to 4.20%. Gasoline rose to $4.17/gal (AAA Thursday) despite yesterday's oil plunge. Industry-level r1 values have been rolled forward to reflect a modest partial reversal of Wednesday's rally (~15-25% give-back, most concentrated in airlines, travel, cruise, and banks; energy stocks recover a portion of their -3.66% sector drop). Scenario probabilities have been updated (see Scenarios section) to reflect the increased fragility: Scenario A "Durable Peace" reduced from ~30% to ~22%; Scenario B "Frozen Stalemate" raised from ~45% to ~50%; Scenario C "Collapse & Re-escalation" raised from ~25% to ~28%. UAL/AAL/DAL +7-12% on the day; CCL +9.4%, NCLH +8.1%; energy stocks down 3-8% in the US, Equinor -13.7%; banks JPM/BAC/WFC +2-3%. Scenario impact paragraphs have been elaborated for all 32 industries with Iran attribution above 30% to provide explicit magnitude estimates, name-level dynamics, multiple reset paths, and key signposts to watch under each of the three scenarios. Critical caveats: only 2 of 426 backed-up tankers had transited Hormuz by midday Apr 8; IATA director general Willie Walsh warned jet fuel recovery takes "months"; Delta pre-market guided Q2 EPS to $1.00-1.50 (vs $1.40 consensus) and cut Q2 capacity by 3.5pp; Israel continues Lebanon strikes (not in ceasefire); Iran's 10-point plan asserts "continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz". UBS cut its 2026 SPX target from 7,700 to 7,500; Goldman flags downside scenario to 5,400; market-implied recession probability now ~50%.

Disclaimer. This dashboard is a synthesis of public reporting and analytical estimates produced for research and discussion purposes. Industry-level returns, multiples, and Iran-attribution percentages are analytical constructions, not direct vendor feeds. Apr 9, 2026 close values incorporate the 7-session relief rally, Goldman's Q2 oil forecast cut, and the Netanyahu-Lebanon talks pivot. Industry r1 values for airlines, hotels, cruise and banks remain well below pre-war levels despite the recovery because structural damage (jet fuel costs, refining margins, insurance premia, RevPAR) will take months to normalize. Not investment advice. Do not rely on this material for trading decisions without independent verification.