| Industry (GICS L3) | #Sig | Dominant type | Mat. | Disp. | Fwd P/E vs 5yr |
3M rel perf |
12M fwd EPS rev |
L2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EN | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | 6 | KIN REG | HIGH | 0.70 | −15% | +28% | +35% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Iran war is the dominant live signal. The Feb 28 strikes and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil +71% YTD; the April 7-8 two-week ceasefire is fragile. Six active signals compound at the P&L level and create structural dispersion across the value chain. Framework #1 priority industry.
Active signals
· Iran war + Strait of Hormuz closure — kinetic, active, fragile ceasefire · SPR refill policy — fiscal, imminent · LNG export pause lifted / reactivated — regulatory, enacted · IRA methane rule rollback — regulatory, enacted, regressing · EPA drilling permit acceleration — regulatory, implemented · Venezuela sanctions posture — kinetic, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Upstream & midstream long (price surge, LNG export tailwind). Downstream margin squeezed by feedstock costs. Refiners captured product spreads mid-shock. Integrateds mixed depending on geographic and segment mix. Dispersion within the industry is structural, not transitory.
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| IT | Semiconductors & Semi Equipment | 7 | TRD F/I KIN | HIGH | 0.78 | +10% | −12% | +8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Seven active signals — the highest count in the framework — span fiscal/industrial, trade, and kinetic categories. Dispersion of 0.78 is the highest in the entire market. AI accelerators, memory, foundry nodes, power chips, and equipment each face different combinations of the seven signals, which makes this the clearest pair-trade environment in the current opportunity set.
Active signals
· Section 232 25% on advanced computing chips — trade, enacted Dec 2025 · Broader chip Section 232 delayed to June 2027 — trade, regressing/deferred · CHIPS Act Title III/IV implementation — fiscal, implemented · US export controls (HBM, EUV, DUV) — trade, enacted · Taiwan strait geopolitical risk — kinetic, stable elevated · Section 301 Phase One China compliance — trade, proposal · AI chip supply-chain agreements — trade, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
AI accelerator makers net long on continued demand + exemptions. Memory HBM exposed to export control updates. Equipment makers CHIPS beneficiary. Foundry advanced nodes exposed to Taiwan risk. Foundry mature nodes exposed to China tariff. Power chips uniform positive.
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| HC | Pharmaceuticals | 5 | TRD REG | HIGH | 0.72 | −20% | −15% | −10% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 232 up to 100% on patented pharmaceutical imports is a discontinuous shock announced Q1 2026. Firm-level dispersion is extreme because US-manufacturing-footprint companies are relatively insulated, while Ireland/Europe/Puerto Rico-dependent companies face severe exposure. IRA Medicare Part D round 2 continues as secondary signal.
Active signals
· Section 232 pharma up to 100% — trade, imminent, graduated · IRA Medicare Part D negotiation round 2 — regulatory, enacted, 20+ drugs/yr · Patented imports Section 232 exposure — trade, imminent · FDA RFK Jr/HHS MAHA direction — regulatory, emerging · BIOSECURE Act enforcement — regulatory, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
Lilly, Merck, J&J relatively insulated on US footprint. Pfizer, AbbVie, BMY more exposed on Irish/European production. Specialty/rare disease less exposed to IRA; large-pipeline oncology more exposed. MAHA adds approval-regime uncertainty universally.
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| MA | Metals & Mining | 5 | TRD F/I | HIGH | 0.70 | +5% | +18% | +12% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Core Section 232 beneficiary at the integrated-producer level, but the April 2, 2026 restructuring introduced a split 50%/25% framework with UK bilateral carve-outs and a 15% cap floating framework for derivatives — creating intra-industry dispersion between domestic integrated producers and downstream converters that rely on imported inputs.
Active signals
· Section 232 50% steel + aluminum — trade, implemented Jun 2025 · Section 232 50% copper — trade, implemented Jul 2025 · April 2 2026 restructured 15% cap framework — trade, enacted · IRA critical minerals sourcing requirements — fiscal, implemented · EU CBAM phase 2 — regulatory, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
Domestic integrated steel (NUE, STLD) long. Downstream converters and fabricators squeezed by input-cost pass-through. Copper miners (FCX) long on tariff protection. Copper users (cable, electrical) short. Aluminum smelters mixed given capacity constraints.
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| IN | Marine Transportation | 5 | KIN TRD | HIGH | 0.68 | +30% | +35% | +20% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Just entered the top-right target quadrant on Iran/Hormuz closure + Red Sea/Houthi reactivation. Vessel-segment dispersion is the highest the framework has seen outside COVID — crude tankers, product tankers, LNG carriers, and containerships each experience different rate dynamics based on route exposure.
Active signals
· Iran war / Strait of Hormuz closure — kinetic, active · Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb Houthi reactivation — kinetic, active · Jones Act enforcement discussions — regulatory, stable · IMO 2026 emissions framework — regulatory, implemented · Section 232 ship components — trade, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
Long-haul tanker operators gaining rates dramatically. Asia-route containerships exposed to diversions and dwell costs. LNG carriers beneficiary of supply chain reshuffling. Jones Act-protected operators stable. Route exposure is the primary differentiator.
| |||||||||
| CD | Automobiles | 5 | TRD F/I | HIGH | 0.65 | −15% | −18% | −10% | STALE |
|
Framework thesis: Complete signal mix rotation from May 2024. New dominant signal is Section 232 25% on autos + parts; EU 2035 was weakened in the 2025 review under the right-shifted EU Parliament; Section 301 EV tariffs became moot post-IEEPA ruling; IRA 30D clean vehicle credit rolled back. Dispersion lower than prior cutoff (0.65 vs 0.75). L2 analysis needs rebuild.
Active signals
· Section 232 25% autos + parts — trade, implemented · IRA 30D clean vehicle credit rollback — fiscal, enacted, regressing · EU 2035 ICE ban weakened (2025 review) — regulatory, regressing · Section 301 China EV tariff dormant post-IEEPA — trade, regressing · USMCA auto content review 2026 — trade, proposal Winners & losers / dispersion
US-domestic production (Ford F-series, GM trucks) favored on tariffs. BMW/Mercedes/VW imports exposed to Section 232. Toyota/Honda differentially affected via Mexico exposure. Tesla exposed to IRA 30D rollback. Chinese BEV import threat now dormant — the key cross-signal effect from the May 2024 analysis has dissolved.
| |||||||||
| HC | Biotechnology | 4 | REG TRD | HIGH | 0.62 | −18% | −12% | −7% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Multi-front pressure from Section 232 pharma spillover + BIOSECURE Act enforcement + NIH funding cuts + IRA small-molecule penalty (9-year vs 13-year exclusivity). Modality-level dispersion creates explicit winners and losers across biologics vs small molecules, antibody vs RNA, oncology vs rare disease.
Active signals
· Section 232 pharma tariff spillover — trade, imminent · IRA small molecule penalty (9yr vs 13yr) — regulatory, implemented · BIOSECURE Act enforcement — regulatory, enacted · NIH funding cuts — fiscal, implemented, regressing Winners & losers / dispersion
Platform biologics (REGN, VRTX) relatively favored. Small-molecule oncology exposed to IRA penalty. Rare disease specialties less exposed. China-supplied CMC biotech at BIOSECURE risk. Modality is the dispersion axis.
| |||||||||
| CD | Automobile Components | 4 | TRD | HIGH | 0.60 | −12% | −14% | −8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 232 25% on auto parts passes through the supply chain; USMCA content review 2026 adds additional uncertainty. Tier 1 suppliers with pricing power face a different exposure than Tier 2 with margin compression. North American content vs. imported content is the primary differentiator.
Active signals
· Section 232 25% auto parts — trade, implemented · IRA battery production credits tightened — fiscal, enacted, regressing · USMCA auto content review 2026 — trade, proposal · EU 2035 weakening reduces EV parts demand — regulatory, regressing Winners & losers / dispersion
North American content suppliers favored. Mexican and European suppliers exposed. EV-focused parts makers (BWA) stressed by IRA rollback. Tier 1 pricing power vs. Tier 2 margin compression creates sub-segment differentiation.
| |||||||||
| UT | Independent Power & Renew. Electricity | 4 | F/I TRD | HIGH | 0.58 | −20% | −10% | −5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: IRA PTC/ITC rollback is the dominant signal, partially offset by AI data center demand surge. Solar ITC step-down accelerated; hydrogen PTC narrowed; wind PTC adjustments pending. Merchant power vs. utility-contracted vs. renewables-heavy operators each face different exposures.
Active signals
· IRA solar ITC step-down accelerated — fiscal, regressing · Hydrogen PTC framework narrowed — fiscal, regressing · Wind PTC adjustments — fiscal, proposal · AI data center power demand surge — fiscal-adjacent, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
AI-data-center-exposed generators (VST, CEG) long. IRA-credit-dependent renewables (NEE renewables) exposed. Merchant power beneficiaries of demand growth. Residential solar (ENPH, SEDG) severely exposed on ITC step-down.
| |||||||||
| EN | Energy Equipment & Services | 4 | KIN REG | HIGH | 0.55 | +0% | +32% | +25% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Upstream activity surge on Iran-driven oil price gives the sector its best fundamental backdrop since 2014. Offshore drillers with constrained supply directly benefit; onshore services recovering unevenly; frac capacity is constrained.
Active signals
· Iran war sustained high oil — kinetic, active · EPA drilling permit acceleration — regulatory, implemented · LNG export buildup — regulatory, implemented · SPR refill policy — fiscal, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
Offshore deepwater drillers (RIG, VAL) highest beta. OFS large-caps (SLB, HAL) beneficiaries. Frac services capacity-constrained. Directional drilling mixed.
| |||||||||
| FI | Banks | 5 | REG MON | HIGH | 0.55 | +8% | +10% | +5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Basel III endgame rollback (Powell admin signaling material changes) + steeper curve + CRE workout + CFPB rules rollback. Dispersion is cross-sectional — money centers benefit from Basel rollback while regionals benefit from CFPB rollback. Fed independence concerns around Powell succession create overhang.
Active signals
· Basel III endgame material changes — regulatory, regressing, favorable · CFPB late fee cap + rules rollback — regulatory, regressing, favorable · Stress test dovish adjustments — regulatory, implemented · CRE workout policy framework — regulatory, proposal · Interest rate outlook + yield curve — monetary, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Capital-heavy money centers (JPM, C, BAC) beneficial from Basel relief. Regional banks (KRE) beneficial from CFPB rollback. CRE-exposed banks mixed on workout framework. Insurance-banking complexes neutral. Framework thesis: Banks are in the "unpriced dispersion" bucket.
| |||||||||
| CO | Interactive Media & Services | 5 | REG POL | HIGH | 0.55 | −8% | −10% | +0% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Trump admin antitrust direction ambiguous; DOJ v. Google search remedies ongoing; EU DMA enforcement intensifying; TikTok divestiture status uncertain post-court challenges; Section 230 reform dormant. Platform-level dispersion across search, social, and streaming.
Active signals
· DOJ Google search remedies proceeding — regulatory, imminent · EU DMA gatekeeper enforcement — regulatory, implemented · TikTok divestiture uncertainty — political, stable · Section 230 reform dormant — regulatory, regressing · AI copyright litigation — regulatory, proposal Winners & losers / dispersion
Search-incumbent Google exposed to remedies. Meta exposed to EU DMA. TikTok US access pending. Challenger platforms positioned for remedy windfalls.
| |||||||||
| IN | Aerospace & Defense | 5 | KIN F/I | HIGH | 0.50 | +18% | +22% | +12% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Dispersion jumped from 0.35 to 0.50 because Ukraine + Iran + munitions depletion + Arsenal of Freedom industrial program + European rearmament create divergent subsegment exposures. A&D is no longer a pure sector trade; pair-trade architecture warranted.
Active signals
· Iran war + munitions depletion (Tomahawk, Patriot) — kinetic, active · Ukraine peace plan + reconstruction framework — kinetic, imminent · FY27 defense supplemental pending — fiscal, proposal · Arsenal of Freedom industrial base program — fiscal, implemented · European rearmament demand — fiscal, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Munitions specialists (RTX Tomahawk, LMT Patriot) with pricing power long. Shipbuilders (HII) long on fleet recapitalization. Commercial aerospace (BA) neutral. Space specialists (RKLB) differentiated. European defense (Rheinmetall) parallel beneficiary.
| |||||||||
| IN | Electrical Equipment | 3 | F/I | HIGH | 0.55 | +22% | +15% | +8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Grid modernization + AI data center buildout + IRA 45X production credit supports domestic manufacturers. Transformer shortage is structural; grid infrastructure spending is back-loaded to 2026-27.
Active signals
· IRA 45X manufacturing credit — fiscal, implemented · Grid modernization federal funding — fiscal, implemented · AI data center power infrastructure — fiscal-adjacent, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Domestic transformer makers (ETN, HUBB) long. Imported component users squeezed. Switchgear specialists (nVent) constrained-supply beneficiaries.
| |||||||||
| MA | Chemicals | 4 | TRD REG | HIGH | 0.55 | −5% | −4% | −2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Multi-signal exposure: Section 232 on petrochemical inputs + EPA rule rollbacks + Chinese excess capacity Section 301. Specialty vs. commodity split; ag chemicals vs. industrial differentiation.
Active signals
· Section 232 petrochemical inputs — trade, enacted · EPA methane / PFAS rule rollbacks — regulatory, regressing · Section 301 China excess capacity investigation — trade, proposal · EU REACH compliance — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
US-integrated petrochem (DOW, LYB) long. Specialty chemicals mixed. Ag chemicals relatively neutral. EU-exposed specialty stressed on REACH.
| |||||||||
| UT | Electric Utilities | 3 | F/I REG | HIGH | 0.42 | +5% | +8% | +4% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: AI data center demand is the dominant positive signal; IRA clean energy rollback mixed. Lower dispersion than specialty industries because state-regulated utility dynamics dominate. AI-exposed utilities differentiate sharply. Framework thesis: Electric Utilities are in the "unpriced dispersion" bucket alongside Banks.
Active signals
· AI data center load growth — fiscal-adjacent, implemented · IRA clean energy investment credit rollback — fiscal, regressing · State renewable portfolio standards — regulatory, stable · Nuclear policy revival (SMR support) — fiscal, proposal Winners & losers / dispersion
Virginia/Texas/Arizona AI-exposed utilities (DOM, AEP) long. Stranded-renewable-ITC risk on some operators. Nuclear-heavy utilities (CEG) long on revival narrative.
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| HC | Life Sciences Tools & Services | 3 | REG F/I | HIGH | 0.48 | −20% | −15% | −8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: BIOSECURE Act enforcement + NIH funding cuts + China biomanufacturing restrictions + Section 232 pharma spillover. China-exposed bioservices severely stressed; domestic CRO/CDMO beneficiary.
Active signals
· BIOSECURE Act enforcement — regulatory, enacted · NIH funding cuts — fiscal, implemented, regressing · China biomanufacturing restrictions — trade, enacted · Section 232 pharma spillover — trade, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
Domestic CDMOs beneficiaries of reshoring. China-linked services (Wuxi) severely stressed. Tools makers (DHR, TMO) neutral to positive.
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| UT | Multi-Utilities | 3 | F/I | HIGH | 0.40 | +3% | +6% | +3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Similar dynamics to Electric Utilities but with gas exposure. LNG export benefits + regional regulatory differences + AI data center uplift for some operators.
Active signals
· AI data center demand — fiscal-adjacent, implemented · IRA rollback selective — fiscal, regressing · Gas export policy — regulatory, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
Gas + power combinations advantageous on LNG uplift. Pure regulated somewhat less exposed but less upside.
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| IN | Construction & Engineering | 4 | F/I | HIGH | 0.48 | +15% | +12% | +6% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Infrastructure Bill implementation + AI data center buildout + reshoring projects + Arsenal of Freedom industrial facilities. Backlogs at record levels. Domestic content requirements create selection effects.
Active signals
· Infrastructure Bill (IIJA) implementation — fiscal, implemented · AI data center buildout boom — fiscal-adjacent, implemented · Reshoring manufacturing capex — fiscal, enacted · Arsenal of Freedom industrial base facilities — fiscal, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Industrial/data center specialists (FLR, PWR, J) beneficiaries. Highway/bridge specialists less exposed. International E&C firms mixed.
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| IN | Machinery | 4 | TRD F/I | HIGH | 0.50 | −8% | −5% | −2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Trade war cross-currents + domestic reshoring capex + ag cycle. Section 232 robotics investigation + Section 301 excess capacity both in flight. China retaliation risk focused on ag equipment.
Active signals
· Section 232 robotics investigation — trade, proposal · Section 301 excess capacity (machinery) — trade, proposal · China retaliation risk (ag equipment) — trade, imminent · Domestic reshoring capex + Infrastructure Bill — fiscal, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Domestic capital equipment (CAT) beneficiary of reshoring. Ag equipment (DE) exposed to China retaliation. Construction equipment mixed.
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| UT | Gas Utilities | 3 | F/I KIN | HIGH | 0.38 | +10% | +15% | +8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: LNG export policy revival + Iran-driven gas price uplift make Gas Utilities more positive than Electric Utilities at the margin. State-level electrification mandates remain as drag but weakened under current admin.
Active signals
· LNG export pause lifted — regulatory, enacted · Iran-driven gas prices — kinetic, active · EPA methane rule rollback — regulatory, regressing, favorable Winners & losers / dispersion
LNG-exposed utilities long. States with electrification mandates (CA, NY, MA) drag on selected names.
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| RE | Specialized REITs (data center / tower) | 3 | F/I REG | HIGH | 0.45 | +12% | +8% | +5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: AI data center demand is the dominant signal; data center REITs experiencing accelerating lease velocity and power constraints. Tower REITs less exposed but benefit from 5G/edge buildout.
Active signals
· AI data center demand surge — fiscal-adjacent, implemented · Grid constraints / power siting — regulatory, imminent · Section 232 tower steel — trade, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
Data center REITs (DLR, EQIX) long. Tower REITs (CCI, AMT) neutral/positive.
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| CD | Broadline Retail | 4 | TRD | MED | 0.55 | −10% | −5% | −3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 122 10% global + de minimis $800 ended + Section 301 excess capacity investigations + consumer goods tariffs. Mass retailers largely pass-through; direct-import models severely disrupted.
Active signals
· Section 122 10% global surcharge — trade, enacted · De minimis $800 ended — trade, implemented · Section 301 excess capacity — trade, proposal · Section 232 various consumer goods — trade, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
Mass retailers (WMT, COST) pass-through. Temu/Shein direct-import model severely disrupted by de minimis end. Amazon 3P exposed.
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| IT | Communications Equipment | 3 | TRD | MED | 0.50 | −8% | −6% | −3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 232 + China export restrictions + 5G/AI network buildout. AI networking specialists beneficiaries of data center capex.
Active signals
· Section 232 comms equipment — trade, enacted · China export controls — trade, enacted · AI networking demand — fiscal-adjacent, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
AI networking specialists (ANET, CSCO) long. China-dependent suppliers exposed.
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| CD | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | 3 | TRD | MED | 0.50 | −12% | −15% | −6% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: China tariffs + Xinjiang forced labor enforcement + luxury China demand weakness. Luxury vs. fast fashion differentiation.
Active signals
· China tariffs + Section 122 — trade, enacted · Xinjiang forced labor (UFLPA) — regulatory, implemented · Luxury China demand weakness — political/macro, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Fast fashion exposed to tariffs. Luxury (LVMH) exposed to China consumer. Domestic brands mixed.
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| IT | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 3 | TRD | MED | 0.48 | −10% | −8% | −4% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 232 + China tariffs + component supply chains. Apple differentially exposed on China production footprint.
Active signals
· Section 232 advanced chips pass-through — trade, enacted · China tariffs — trade, enacted · CHIPS Act adjacent benefits — fiscal, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Apple China exposure material. Dell server AI benefit. HP/Lenovo mixed.
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| HC | Health Care Providers & Services | 3 | REG | MED | 0.48 | −15% | −8% | −5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Medicare rate dynamics + site-neutral payment + drug pricing spillover + 340B reform + RFK Jr MAHA direction adds approval-regime uncertainty.
Active signals
· Medicare rate negotiation — regulatory, stable · Site-neutral payment reform — regulatory, proposal · 340B reform — regulatory, proposal Winners & losers / dispersion
Hospital systems (HCA) exposed to site-neutral. Managed care (UNH) exposed to MA rates. Services (CAH) mixed.
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| FI | Consumer Finance | 2 | REG | MED | 0.45 | −12% | −5% | −2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: CFPB rollback + interest rate path + credit card regulation changes. Credit card specialists primary beneficiaries of CFPB late fee cap rollback.
Active signals
· CFPB late fee cap + rules rollback — regulatory, regressing, favorable · Interest rate path — monetary, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Credit card specialists (COF, SYF) beneficiaries of CFPB rollback. Installment lenders mixed.
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| IT | Software | 4 | REG POL | MED | 0.45 | −8% | −10% | +0% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: EU AI Act implementation + DOJ antitrust + AI copyright litigation + China data flows. AI revenue concentration creates divergent exposures across enterprise and consumer software.
Active signals
· EU AI Act implementation — regulatory, implemented · DOJ Microsoft antitrust — regulatory, imminent · AI copyright litigation — regulatory, proposal · China data flows restrictions — trade, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
AI-leveraged platforms (MSFT, PLTR) differentiated. Enterprise SaaS mixed. Cybersecurity well-positioned.
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| IN | Air Freight & Logistics | 3 | KIN TRD | MED | 0.45 | −8% | −12% | −5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Red Sea / Hormuz disruption + China trade + de minimis ending + cross-border logistics squeeze.
Active signals
· Iran war / Hormuz disruption — kinetic, active · Red Sea / Houthi — kinetic, active · De minimis $800 ended — trade, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
International freight forwarders (EXPD) exposed. Domestic parcel (UPS, FDX) mixed. Air cargo beneficiary of ocean disruption.
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| IN | Passenger Airlines | 3 | KIN REG | MED | 0.45 | −15% | −18% | −8% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Fuel prices (Iran war) + FAA rules + SAF mandates + international route access to Gulf at risk.
Active signals
· Iran-driven fuel prices — kinetic, active · FAA certification regime — regulatory, stable · International route access (Gulf) — kinetic, active Winners & losers / dispersion
Long-haul international (DAL, UAL) exposed to Gulf route risk. Domestic LCCs (LUV) fuel-exposed.
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| HC | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | 2 | TRD REG | MED | 0.40 | −8% | −5% | −3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Section 232 medical device investigation + FDA approval regime + supply chain reshoring.
Active signals
· Section 232 medical devices — trade, proposal · FDA approval regime — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
US-manufactured device makers (MDT, JNJ) relatively favored. Imported device makers exposed.
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| FI | Capital Markets | 3 | REG | MED | 0.42 | +5% | +8% | +3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: SEC rules rollback + IPO reform + crypto stablecoin legislation + M&A revival.
Active signals
· SEC rule rollbacks — regulatory, regressing · Stablecoin legislation — regulatory, imminent · M&A environment improvement — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Exchanges (CME, ICE) beneficiaries of volatility. Investment banks (GS, MS) M&A revival. Crypto-adjacent well-positioned.
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| IN | Building Products | 2 | F/I TRD | MED | 0.40 | −5% | −3% | +0% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Lumber tariffs + steel tariffs + housing policy interact with housing cycle.
Active signals
· Section 232 lumber — trade, enacted · Section 232 steel pass-through — trade, implemented · Housing affordability policy — regulatory, proposal Winners & losers / dispersion
Lumber producers exposed. Imported building products exposed. Domestic cement neutral.
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| IT | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | 2 | TRD | MED | 0.40 | −6% | −4% | −2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Trade + supply chain diversification + test/measurement for AI capex.
Active signals
· Section 232 electronics components — trade, enacted · China supply chain — trade, enacted · AI test/measurement demand — fiscal-adjacent, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Test/measurement specialists (KEYS, TER) AI beneficiary. Imaging/sensors mixed.
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| CS | Tobacco | 1 | REG | MED | 0.38 | −5% | +0% | +0% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: FDA menthol ban indefinitely delayed (regressing signal) + flavored nicotine enforcement + FDA MAHA oversight.
Active signals
· FDA menthol ban delayed/regressing — regulatory, regressing, favorable · Flavored nicotine enforcement — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Combustible cigarette (MO) stable on menthol delay. Nicotine alternatives face regulatory overhang.
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| FI | Insurance | 2 | REG | MED | 0.38 | +3% | +6% | +2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Climate disclosure stayed + NAIC reforms + state insurance reform + Iran war marine/cargo claims exposure.
Active signals
· SEC climate disclosure stayed — regulatory, regressing · Iran war marine/cargo claims — kinetic-adjacent, active · Reinsurance pricing hard market — market, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
P&C insurers mixed on climate relief. Reinsurers (RNR) hard market beneficiary.
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| FI | Financial Services | 2 | REG | MED | 0.35 | +2% | +5% | +2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: SEC regulatory rollback + private markets reform + crypto framework.
Active signals
· SEC rule rollbacks — regulatory, regressing · Private markets reform — regulatory, proposal · Crypto legislation — regulatory, imminent Winners & losers / dispersion
Asset managers (BLK) mixed. Advisory services stable. Crypto service providers long on legislation.
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| IN | Industrial Conglomerates | 2 | F/I TRD | MED | 0.35 | +3% | +5% | +2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Cross-exposure to trade, reshoring capex, defense spending. Individual conglomerate positioning drives dispersion.
Active signals
· Section 232 various passthroughs — trade, enacted · Reshoring capex — fiscal, implemented · Defense spending — fiscal, enacted Winners & losers / dispersion
Defense-heavy (HON, GE) positioned. Pure industrial mixed.
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| IN | Ground Transportation | 2 | REG | MED | 0.35 | −3% | +0% | +0% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Rail labor + EPA truck emissions (regressing) + fuel prices + USMCA cross-border review.
Active signals
· EPA truck emissions rollback — regulatory, regressing · Rail labor policy — regulatory, stable · Fuel price pass-through — kinetic-adjacent, active Winners & losers / dispersion
Rails (UNP) relatively stable. Trucking (KNX) fuel-sensitive.
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| RE | Office REITs | 1 | REG | MED | 0.35 | −35% | −10% | −5% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: WFH secular drag + return-to-office EO + state/local mandates + refinancing risk. Federal RTO order only marginally moves private sector.
Active signals
· Federal return-to-office EO — regulatory, enacted · State/local office mandates — regulatory, stable · Refinancing/capital access — monetary, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Class A trophy (BXP) differentiated. Secondary office stressed. Medical office (DOC) different dynamic.
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| RE | Residential REITs | 2 | REG MON | MED | 0.33 | −8% | −5% | −2% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: Rent control + zoning + housing policy + interest rates.
Active signals
· Federal housing policy — regulatory, proposal · State rent control dynamics — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Sunbelt apartment REITs (MAA, CPT) better positioned. Coastal rent-control exposed (ESS).
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| MA | Construction Materials | 2 | F/I TRD | MED | 0.35 | +8% | +6% | +3% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: IIJA spending + Section 232 cement + reshoring + tariff pass-through.
Active signals
· Infrastructure Bill (IIJA) spending — fiscal, implemented · Section 232 cement — trade, enacted · Reshoring construction demand — fiscal, implemented Winners & losers / dispersion
Aggregate producers (VMC, MLM) IIJA long. Cement mixed.
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| MA | Containers & Packaging | 2 | TRD | MED | 0.32 | −5% | −3% | −1% | pend |
|
Framework thesis: PFAS + Section 232 aluminum pass-through + plastics regulation + EU directives.
Active signals
· PFAS regulation — regulatory, stable · Section 232 aluminum pass-through — trade, implemented · EU plastics directives — regulatory, stable Winners & losers / dispersion
Glass/fiber substitution beneficiary. Plastic-heavy exposed. Aluminum cans mixed.
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| HC | Health Care Technology | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.30 | −5% | −3% | −1% | pend |
|
Not currently a priority industry. Limited direct policy exposure; privacy/data regulations emerging but not material at 12M horizon. Monitored passively.
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| CO | Entertainment | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.30 | −8% | −5% | −2% | pend |
|
Content regulation and streaming consolidation dominate vs. direct policy. Not currently material at 12M horizon. Monitored passively.
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| CO | Media | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.30 | −10% | −6% | −3% | pend |
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Traditional media regulation minor; secular decline dominant vs. policy drivers. Monitored passively.
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| CD | Household Durables | 2 | TRD | LOW | 0.28 | −18% | −10% | −5% | pend |
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Tariff pass-through and housing cycle dominate over direct policy materiality at the industry level. Monitored passively with upside watchpoint if housing policy shifts.
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| CD | Specialty Retail | 2 | TRD | LOW | 0.28 | −12% | −8% | −4% | pend |
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Consumer goods tariffs and de minimis relevant but diversified base keeps industry-level materiality modest. Monitored passively.
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| FI | Mortgage REITs | 1 | MON | LOW | 0.28 | −15% | −5% | −2% | pend |
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Rate path dominant driver; policy secondary. Fed path is the proximate factor. Monitored passively.
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| CS | Food Products | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.25 | −3% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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EPA pesticide rules, labeling, SNAP — limited materiality at index level. Monitored passively.
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| CS | Beverages | 0 | — | LOW | 0.25 | +0% | +2% | +1% | pend |
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No active federal signals at current cutoff; occasional state-level sugar taxes. Monitored passively.
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| CD | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.25 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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Labor/minimum wage dispersed at state level; limited federal policy exposure. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Diversified REITs | 0 | — | LOW | 0.25 | −8% | −3% | −1% | pend |
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Rates dominant driver. No meaningful direct policy exposure at current cutoff. Monitored passively.
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| IN | Trading Companies & Distributors | 1 | TRD | LOW | 0.25 | −3% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Diversified exposure dilutes policy materiality at the industry level. Monitored passively.
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| IN | Transportation Infrastructure | 2 | F/I | LOW | 0.25 | +5% | +4% | +2% | pend |
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IIJA beneficiary but low dispersion; policy moves the industry uniformly. Monitored with upside watchpoint.
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| CO | Wireless Telecommunication Services | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.25 | −3% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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Spectrum policy is the main lever but impact is slow and uniform. Monitored passively.
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| UT | Water Utilities | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.22 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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PFAS + infrastructure spending are relevant but slow-moving and mostly priced. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Industrial REITs | 1 | TRD | LOW | 0.22 | −6% | −3% | −2% | pend |
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Trade flow sensitivity but diversified footprint keeps materiality modest. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Retail REITs | 0 | — | LOW | 0.22 | −5% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Secular store closures dominate. No active federal policy signals. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Health Care REITs | 0 | — | LOW | 0.22 | −5% | −3% | −1% | pend |
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Medicare stable; no direct active signals. Monitored passively.
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| CS | Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail | 1 | TRD | LOW | 0.22 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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Tariff pass-through on private label but industry-level materiality limited by scale. Monitored passively.
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| CD | Distributors | 0 | — | LOW | 0.20 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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Stable. No active signals. Monitored passively.
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| CO | Diversified Telecommunication Services | 0 | — | LOW | 0.20 | −5% | −3% | −1% | pend |
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FCC spectrum policy slow-moving; no active high-materiality signals. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Hotel & Resort REITs | 0 | — | LOW | 0.20 | −5% | −3% | −1% | pend |
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Travel cycle dominant. No direct policy exposure. Monitored passively.
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| IN | Commercial Services & Supplies | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.20 | −3% | −2% | +0% | pend |
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Diversified base; no material policy exposure at industry level. Monitored passively.
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| IT | IT Services | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.20 | −3% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Regulatory exposure minor relative to macro demand environment. Monitored passively.
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| MA | Paper & Forest Products | 1 | TRD | LOW | 0.20 | −5% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Section 232 lumber minor relative to secular dynamics. Monitored passively.
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| RE | Real Estate Management & Development | 0 | — | LOW | 0.20 | −5% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Rates dominant. No active federal signals. Monitored passively.
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| CS | Household Products | 0 | — | LOW | 0.18 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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No active signals. Stable. Monitored passively.
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| CS | Personal Care Products | 0 | — | LOW | 0.18 | +0% | +0% | +0% | pend |
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No active signals. Stable. Monitored passively.
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| CD | Leisure Products | 1 | TRD | LOW | 0.18 | −3% | −2% | −1% | pend |
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Minor tariff exposure; materiality below threshold. Monitored passively.
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| CD | Diversified Consumer Services | 0 | — | LOW | 0.15 | +2% | +3% | +1% | pend |
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Stable. No active signals. Monitored passively.
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| IN | Professional Services | 1 | REG | LOW | 0.15 | +5% | +3% | +2% | pend |
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Limited regulatory exposure; materiality well below threshold. Monitored passively.
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